1. Bundesliga Overall Statistics for the 2011/2012 Season
In this category, an overall statistic of the Bundesliga is given, in comparison with the expected results in the sense of home and away wins, draws, expected goals, as well as furthermore the values expected determination/arrived determination and expected/arrived goal difference. What these values mean in more detail is explained elsewhere.
The statistics of the results so far
|Festlegung erwartet||Festlegung eingetroffen|
|ø Torabweichung||ø Torabweichung erwartet|
Home wins predicted almost exactly right. 125 expected, 125 arrived. It couldn’t have been better. The six (to seven) draws, which have come too many (so far) this season, are missing from the away wins. Well, a deviation that one can certainly tolerate, especially since, as emphasised again and again, the parameters are adjusted with each result entered in order to reflect reality as accurately as possible, above all to be able to catch trends that arise systematically in good time. Of course, at the same time, “purely random” deviations, which actually have no real cause, are also given parameter adjustments, which would accordingly be a mistake. On the other hand, many years of observation have shown that even random trends are sometimes only confirmed by first observing them and then acting on them. In this respect, the occurrence of deviations a) would be normal, b) now and then random and c) nevertheless with a) or b) in each case would not be entirely without practical significance, so that an alignment would seem to make sense.
Another effect is, of course, that if a trend occurs purely by chance, it will probably disappear again just as quickly, so the adjustments – which are always carried out very moderately – will be taken back again.
In the case of goals, the deviation is even a bit greater. The home teams have scored over 20 goals too many – just against expectation – and conceded close to 8 too few. This would NOT be done just by replacing 8 draws with away wins. In these 8 games, the away team would only concede 8 goals (at least). One more goal scored away from home is an away win instead of a draw. Even if they were to make up a total of 10 or even 14 goals, it would not be enough to balance the goal statistics. This means: there were a greater number of TOO HIGHER home wins. Here is a crosstable of all the results so far:
Already highlighted all results with four or more goals difference. 17 such home victories are matched by only four corresponding away victories. Certainly, high home wins are somewhat more likely, due to the home advantage, but it is probably a mismatch after all.
The determination is almost exact, so one can assume that the favourites were quite well assessed, very generally speaking. It is certainly a good sign for the quality of the numbers.
The average goal deviation meanwhile shows a somewhat too high deviation (reported from previous experiences), which on the one hand reflects the swings in the results (see above), but on the other hand can still be taken as fairly normal.