The direct Champions League Quali over 2nd and 3rd place
The probability distribution after the 29th matchday from a computer point of view
|Team||Number of 2nd places in 5000 simulations||Number of 3rd places in 5000 simulations||Sum of 2nd and 3rd places||2nd places in percentages|
|1||FC Bayern München||4974||11||4985||99.70%|
|2||FC Schalke 04||11||4098||4109||82.18%|
But a few more interesting developments, but it is quite clear that from next season onwards they will have to take all 4 places, i.e. 1st with as well as 4th. Stuttgart with the minimal chance for direct qualification to the CL, but overall with another 105 times(out of 5000) in 4th place, which equals another 2.1% in which they still take the (4th) place from Gladbach or Schalke. Schalke is affected by this 8 times, Gladbach 99 times in which they do not even reach 4th place, which gives Stuttgart its accumulated chance.
Bayern is only ever out (in this statistic) when they win the title, so they are safe in the top flight after all, the 99.7% rather confusing.
The chance changes due to the results of the 30th + 31st matchday
|Win/loss absolute compared to previous matchday||Win/loss percentage|
|1||FC Bayern München||1691||33.82%|
|17||FC Schalke 04||-598||-11.96%|
Bayern is shown here as the clear winner, recruiting their chances almost exclusively from their lost title chances. The reverse is true for Dortmund. The shift in Gladbach and Schalke is realistic, Stuttgart has been added.