What should be talked about in the book/interview?
- The “salvation” of football
- Football is purely a fan sport. Loss of neutral spectators
- More goals – more attractiveness
- Where to start? Major concept: media, fans, rules, referees, players
- Justice must be writ large
- Consequence of injustice: Riots, aggression
- The role of the media
- The mentality that “football is a pure results sport” needs to be rethought
- Football as a spectacle, comparison with American sports
- The rules of football
- The application of the rules
- The interpretation of the rules
- The referees
- Change of mindset: everyone, except a few fans of the team involved, wants to see the goal action and not hear the whistle
- The coverage especially in Germany
- Comparison with foreign coverage
- Special rule change proposals
Football and betting
- Is football predictable?
- Yes, and so predictable. A mathematical number as a measure of calculability
- How is betting done, how does an odds, an estimate come about?
- Basis: probabilities. For all possible outcomes, all parameters relevant to the game.
- The betting market
- Conversion into a computer programme
- The use of the software in the betting market, evidence, financial and mathematical
- Testing the quality of predictions
- Betting forums
Sports programme about football and betting
Pauli’s ideal football world
- Review of a match day
- Analysing the games for the actual performances shown
- “Deserved because the goal was scored” is worthless, not only for bettors
- Refereeing decisions, looking at them in depth, a lot of psychology
- Preview the upcoming matchday
- What does the betting market “think”, how does it react?
- What does the computer say?
- Where could the good tips be?
- Long-term betting analysis: chance distribution of all teams
- Promotion-Relegation-Championship-European Cup
Germany at the major tournaments
- all major tournaments from 1966 to 2008 in retrospect
- Special view of Germany’s performances, aspects of luck, foreign perspective
- Special view of the professional player
- very special games/memories
- High wins/losses
- objectivity of the professional player
The calculation of the 2010 World Cup
- Playing strength estimations
- Adjustment of existing ones by player analysis
- Each player is rated with the playing strength of his club team
- Explanation of programming, rules and specifications
- Simulation as a basis for probability estimates
- Comparison with the betting market
- The computer’s betting suggestions, well explained