Evaluation of the bets from matchday 32
Pairing 1 X 2
| Mainz | Wolfsburg | 2.06 | 3.80 | 3.70 |
| Hoffenheim | Leverkusen | 2.56 | 3.55 | 2.88 |
| Werder | FC Bayern | 4.20 | 3.90 | 1.93 |
| Hertha | Kaiserslautern | 1.61 | 4.20 | 6.00 |
| Nürnberg | HSV | 2.24 | 3.50 | 3.50 |
| FC Köln | Stuttgart | 3.80 | 3.90 | 2.02 |
| Dortmund | Gladbach | 1.49 | 4.20 | 8.20 |
| Augsburg | Schalke 04 | 3.25 | 3.55 | 2.28 |
| Hannover | Freiburg | 1.92 | 3.75 | 4.30 |
Goals scored 2.80
Hits scored 1
Money score -4.07
Absolutely devastating, such a yield. However, it is worth mentioning that on the one hand there are extreme warnings against betting on the last few match days, as you always have to reckon with someone dangling their legs at some point, but on the other hand that almost all bets only lacked the one goal to win. However, we don’t want to talk things up, nor should we. All in all, the bets were abysmal.
The bet on Mainz was perhaps just about justifiable, even if you personally – me, the author – didn’t see that much of the game. It had been warned mainly in the sense that Wolfsburg had performed better than the last three defeats would suggest.
Bayern actually won in the last minute. The following comments should be made about this: that they would field a B eleven was pretty much announced. That these players would certainly be motivated was also not the big question. The question was more about their ability, whether they could actually play at the level of the A eleven, even if they were under contract with Bayern – and thus belonged to the nobility. This was probably not quite the case, and the goals only came after the substitutions of some regulars. On the betting market, however, the knowledge of the line-up had this effect in the course of the week: the rate rose to 2.40. So those who had patience here, and the courage to go with it, were able to get a much better rate and seal the hole in their wallets a tiny bit.
Stuttgart in Cologne was a disastrous bet. From the start, one had the feeling that Stuttgart did not want to hurt Cologne at all costs. Maybe they think they can reach the Euro-League that way and let Cologne have it pretty freely. The 1:1 was rather fortunate from Stuttgart’s point of view, but at least it was proof that they didn’t give up – which was actually out of the question.
Interesting to see how Dortmund’s share price developed against Gladbach: when Bayern was behind in Bremen, the share price fell by quite a bit. Logical, since they would have been champions without a game if Bayern had drawn or lost. Although one readily admits their character to play as well as they could for the crowds that were expected anyway, so that the celebration would be even more successful, the price slump was understandable. After the Bavarian winning goal in the last minute, it was clear that Dortmund would now go full throttle to dispel all doubts. In this game they were simply too strong, but an 8.40 doesn’t come every day.
Schalke at least did enough in half 2 to justify the bet. In half 1 it was pretty much nothing. Still: not a good bet, clearly.
The bet on Hannover had also been warned against, but not because it was about nothing, but because Freiburg had impressed so much in the entire Rückserie. On the pitch, this impression was confirmed, although Hannover had a few very good chances. This bet can only have been bad in the sense that Freiburg were too good, but this was somewhat anticipated. It wasn’t down to Hannover, they did what they could and Schlaudraff really didn’t have such a good day – which of course you can’t predict.
All in all, it was certainly a bit unlucky that none of the other games came off, whereas Bayern’s victory was also rather lucky, although one should also distinguish between timing and shares of the game. In terms of timing, it was lucky, but Bayern were the better team overall.
Evaluation of the individual match days
This is the evaluation of the individual match days, sorted chronologically.
Matchday No. Number of bets Number of hits expected hit deviation win/loss
| 1 | 7 | 5 | 2.84 | +2.16 | +7.96 |
| 2 | 7 | 3 | 2.77 | +0.23 | +1.75 |
| 3 | 2 | 0 | 1.00 | -1.00 | -2.00 |
| 4 | 3 | 1 | 1.14 | -0.14 | -0.28 |
| 5 | 6 | 2 | 2.54 | -0.54 | -2.33 |
| 6 | 8 | 3 | 2.29 | +0.71 | +8.10 |
| 7 | 8 | 4 | 3.55 | +0.45 | +0.00 |
| 8 | 5 | 1 | 1.28 | -0.28 | -2.16 |
| 9 | 7 | 3 | 2.36 | +0.64 | +5.60 |
| 10 | 7 | 1 | 1.92 | -0.92 | +2.20 |
| 11 | 8 | 2 | 2.79 | -0.79 | -3.39 |
| 12 | 7 | 1 | 2.07 | -1.07 | -2.00 |
| 13 | 6 | 4 | 2.77 | +1.23 | +5.37 |
| 14 | 7 | 2 | 2.63 | -0.63 | +4.68 |
| 15 | 6 | 1 | 2.18 | -1.18 | -4.65 |
| 16 | 6 | 2 | 2.13 | -0.13 | -0.53 |
| 17 | 7 | 3 | 3.13 | -0.13 | -0.54 |
| 18 | 7 | 3 | 2.57 | +0.43 | +2.34 |
| 19 | 4 | 1 | 1.51 | -0.51 | -1.70 |
| 20 | 6 | 2 | 2.32 | -0.32 | +0.63 |
| 21 | 8 | 2 | 3.02 | -1.02 | -3.73 |
| 22 | 8 | 4 | 2.85 | +1.15 | +2.19 |
| 23 | 5 | 1 | 2.19 | -1.19 | -3.24 |
| 24 | 9 | 2 | 3.24 | -1.24 | -0.30 |
| 25 | 6 | 2 | 2.63 | -0.63 | -1.67 |
| 26 | 7 | 5 | 2.54 | +2.46 | +8.43 |
| 27 | 7 | 3 | 3.51 | -0.51 | -0.94 |
| 28 | 6 | 1 | 2.21 | -1.21 | -3.10 |
| 29 | 6 | 3 | 3.21 | -0.21 | +0.55 |
| 30 | 5 | 3 | 2.03 | +0.97 | +3.27 |
| 31 | 4 | 1 | 1.47 | -0.47 | -2.07 |
| 32 | 6 | 1 | 2.8 | -1.80 | -4.07 |
Total betting statistics
This is the running total after evaluation of the individual match days
Total number of bets Total number of hits Total balance G/V in% Total expected hits Total hit deviation
| 7 | 5 | +7.96 | 113.71% | 2.84 | +2.16 |
| 14 | 8 | +9.71 | 69.36% | 5.61 | +2.39 |
| 16 | 8 | +7.71 | 48.19% | 6.61 | +1.39 |
| 19 | 9 | +7.43 | 39.11% | 7.74 | +1.26 |
| 25 | 11 | +5.10 | 20.40% | 10.28 | +0.72 |
| 33 | 14 | +13.20 | 40.00% | 12.57 | +1.43 |
| 41 | 18 | +13.20 | 32.20% | 16.12 | +1.88 |
| 46 | 19 | +11.04 | 24.00% | 17.40 | +1.60 |
| 53 | 22 | +16.64 | 31.40% | 19.76 | +2.24 |
| 60 | 23 | +18.84 | 31.40% | 21.68 | +1.32 |
| 68 | 25 | +15.45 | 22.72% | 24.47 | +0.53 |
| 75 | 26 | +13.45 | 17.93% | 26.54 | -0.54 |
| 81 | 30 | +18.82 | 23.23% | 29.31 | +0.69 |
| 88 | 32 | +23.50 | 26.70% | 31.94 | +0.06 |
| 94 | 33 | +18.85 | 20.05% | 34.12 | -1.12 |
| 100 | 35 | +18.32 | 18.32% | 36.25 | -1.25 |
| 107 | 38 | +17.78 | 16.62% | 39.38 | -1.38 |
| 114 | 41 | +20.12 | 17.65% | 41.95 | -0.95 |
| 118 | 42 | +18.42 | 15.61% | 43.46 | -1.46 |
| 124 | 44 | +19.05 | 15.36% | 45.78 | -1.78 |
| 132 | 46 | +15.32 | 11.61% | 48.80 | -2.80 |
| 140 | 50 | +17.51 | 12.51% | 51.65 | -1.65 |
| 145 | 51 | +14.27 | 9.84% | 53.84 | -2.84 |
| 154 | 53 | +13.97 | 9.07% | 57.08 | -4.08 |
| 160 | 55 | +12.30 | 7.69% | 59.71 | -4.71 |
| 167 | 60 | +20.73 | 12.41% | 62.25 | -2.25 |
| 174 | 63 | +19.79 | 11.37% | 65.76 | -2.76 |
| 180 | 64 | +16.69 | 9.27% | 67.97 | -3.97 |
| 186 | 67 | +17.24 | 9.27% | 71.18 | -4.18 |
| 191 | 70 | +20.51 | 10.74% | 72.68 | -2.68 |
| 195 | 71 | +18.44 | 9.46% | 74.15 | -3.15 |
| 201 | 72 | +14.37 | 7.15% | 76.95 | -4.95 |
Well, the decline is unmistakable. Perhaps it would be better to do nothing at all in the last rounds? The weighting from next season onwards could be a good help, as you could then control the number of units.
